Back from Panama

Just back from a two week trip to Panama , Brazil’s Soft coffee belt and Santos – the largest coffee export Port in the world.

This anticipation will help manage the low quality of the remaining crop as well as partially cover the eventual deficit of close to ZERO carry-over expected for the 1st of July/11.

The good news is mostly concentrated on the quality of this new crop that has already started to be harvested. If the weather remains normal and dry, it will be very good. Like last year, Brazilian producers are anticipating the harvest by at least 2 months.

Brazil will repeat the 50 million bags usage during this current 10/11 crop cycle, 19.5 million for the internal Industry and 30.5 million exports up to June 30th/2011. As the past crop of 09/10 left no carry-over into July 1rst/10, the current 10/11 – 50 million bag crop leaves no carry-over for the second consecutive year , into July 1st/11.

The incoming crop for the 11/12 cycle is smaller, after a large crop, the trees are stressed and usually reduce productivity between 20 – 30% for the next crop cycle. My best estimate is a production of 41 million bags. In other words, a confirmed internal demand of 20 million bags and exports wanting to repeat the performance of 30 million bags/year in as for the last three years, a potential 9 million bag deficit is building for the period starting March – April/12 through July 1st 2012.

On the other hand, the 12/13 crop will probably be the largest in Brazil on recent history. We will only be able to make a first “estimate” by October-November 2011 when the flowering and fixation events take place. Whatever the flowering for the 12/13 crop shows next November, have in mind that a flower is not a fruit and a fruit is not a coffee bean before May – July 2012.

The only way by which Brazil may manage the potential high deficit is by reducing in part its export volume and, if lucky with the weather conditions, be able to anticipate in part the next 12/13 harvest procedures into April-May/12.

Still, if the ride is successful and just manages to mend the gaps, Brazil will need at least another 50 – 52 million bags availability to satisfy its markets for 2012 and beyond.

Let’s wait and see what the demand, supply and weather will reserve for the next 12 to 16 months in the green coffee market. Meanwhile, we have some great coffees in different ports here in USA.

Take a look at the different Nano and Micro lots available. We also have coffee in Houston, scenario for the next SCAA’s Annual Conference and Exhibition.

During the SCAA Conference, we will be holding a series of cupping sessions featuring. Some of the Nucoffees below mentioned.

Call us at 1 954 797 0078 and confirm your presence!

Cupping schedule is below:

Date: Saturday, April 30th

Time:
2:15 – 3:15pm
3:30 – 4:30pm
4:45 – 5:45pm
Room: A

Have a great Spring Season,

See you in Houston!

Christian Wolthers

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