May Newsletter
The Arabica coffee harvest has started in Brazil, at least at the Ipanema farm in the South of Minas Gerais. Mid May is indeed very early for the Brazilian harvest to begin. This is due to the weather pattern these last 8 months. Rains were abundant and constant from November/08 through late April 2009. Now the cooler fall temperatures and dry season have moved in, promoting maturation of very bold cherries, mostly in the lower areas of the Southern Brazilian coffee belt.
This early harvest will provide mainly for the preparation of full washed and pulp natural coffees. These will probably be available for shipment out of Brazil by Mid July onwards.
It’s important to mention that the harvest has started on a selective manner. There is not a lot of volume showing up at washing and drying facilities yet. The harvest will probably take its normal course and finish by September as usual.
The main effect of this partial early maturation is that logistics and harvest management will be much neater and stream lined. This will result in better preparation, more drying patio space and a much better quality of the finished product.
Brazil has exported over 30 million bags in the last 12 months ending April 30th/09. This confirms that whatever may be short shipped from other origins, Brazil will not let the ball drop and continues feeding the flow of green coffee into the local and the export markets.
Now, brazilian producers hope to take advantage of the short Mild and Other Mild availability through December/09 by preparing, selling and shipping as much Full Washed and Pulped Natural as possible. The production of these preparations might reach a record high in volume this year.
On the other hand, Colombia is harvesting its Mitaca crop and the truckers strike is now over. The expectations are definitely that shipments will trail towards normalization in the medium term regaining market share for this great coffee in European and North American blends.
Prices in Colombia reached a + 77 level locally this pastweek.
Colombia hasn’t seen such high differentials since the second half of 1998.
In Guatemala, we saw prices reach + 43 locally for the very few remaining SHB’s. Demand for the new crop is already evident, but the buying levels are far below the current practiced prices and therefore, a “no go” from the shippers and producers.
The only region still to finish the harvest is Huehuetenango and a maximum of 100.000 bags of Hue’s and other SHB’s in pergaminio are estimated to be in hands of producers for delivery to exporters before the new crop arrives this December.
With so many roasters, coffee retailers and food chains on both hemispheres launching high quality coffee programs, either the world starts to produce more of these coffees or some players will drop from the cliff and have to downgrade the quality of their blends.
The market prices for coffee will probably be the determination factor to this equation once the trend of consumers choosing better coffees and preparations seems unstoppable. We should all know by now that “High quality coffee promotes high consumption, low coffee quality promotes other beverages”.
Christian Wolthers
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