Quick Update in the Current Coffee Scene
Dear coffee lovers,
Quick update in the current coffee scene.
The “C” market is going through a combination of factors that presents us an unusual yet periodical consequence of a high coffee prices.
EUDR (which has now been postponed), low volume of spots in consuming countries, draught in Vietnam, lack of containers, logistics problem in the red sea, extreme heat, late rain in Brazil, last but not least high inflation + interest rates causing funds to invest long in commodities.
The good news is rain has arrived in Brazil, expectation for a great uniform flowering is at is at its peak and the forecast from now until the end of the year is looking positive.
Few producers have mentioned that because of the extreme heat and late rains, they already account a small loss of volume for crop 24/25 yet, it’s early to have a substantial opinion.
Current average of rains in Brazil:
-Matas de Minas 100 mm.
-South of Minas 30-40 mm, some areas up to 50-90 mm
The lower average was in Cerrado and Mogiana….
-Cerrado Mineiro 20-40mm
-Mogiana 15-35mm
In the recent days the “C” market has reached the high of 2.75 cents @ Z4 due to the fear of a Brazilian drought. A similar high was seen 13 years ago, April 2011 due to supply disruption caused by frost damage in Brazilian highlands.
Future expectations for a good scenario is market loosing value down to approximately 2.20, in an opposite one….high can reach 2.75 once again.
Let’s observe and hope for the best.
Anike Wolthers
Category: Articles
